SportXFan

Elo Win Probability

Calculate the pre-game win probability between two teams based on their Elo ratings. Elo is a zero-sum rating system originally developed for chess, widely adapted for team sports.

Assumptions & Math

This tool uses a standard base-10 logistic curve with a scale factor of 400. This means a rating difference of 400 points translates to roughly a 90.9% chance of winning for the higher-rated team. It does not account for home-field advantage.

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Team A Win Prob

70.3%

Team B Win Prob

29.7%