The Death of the Mid-Range is Exaggerated
Why elite playoff offenses still rely on inefficient shots when defenses compress in the fourth quarter.
The analytics revolution in basketball created a distinct geometry: shots at the rim and three-pointers. The math is undeniable. A 33% shooter from deep yields the same expected points (1.0) as a 50% shooter from the mid-range. However, the narrative that the mid-range jumper is dead fundamentally misunderstands playoff context.
The Playoff Context (Data: 2023 NBA Playoffs)
In the regular season, transition play and defensive lapses allow teams to dictate their shot profiles. In the playoffs, defenses scheme specifically to eliminate rim attempts and corner threes (the most efficient spots on the floor). This leaves the mid-range as the only consistently available real estate.
Worked Example: Denver Nuggets vs. Defensive Switching
During the 2023 Finals, Miami heavily switched actions involving Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to deny rim penetration. Murray's response wasn't to force heavily contested threes; he stepped into the 15-18 foot area. In clutch minutes (score within 5, under 5 mins left), the mid-range jumper is often the most open shot available. Murray shot 47% from mid-range in the playoffs, securing crucial points when standard half-court actions broke down.
Shot Quality vs. Shot Type
The mistake is assuming all mid-range shots are equal. A contested, off-the-dribble long two early in the shot clock is terrible offense. A wide-open 14-footer created by a pick-and-roll advantage late in the clock is excellent offense.
FAQ
- Who are the most efficient mid-range shooters today?
- Players like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and DeMar DeRozan consistently shoot above 50% from this area, defying the traditional math by turning a "bad" shot into an elite weapon.
- Will the mid-range ever return to its 90s volume?
- No. Role players will continue to be restricted to layups and threes. The mid-range is now exclusively a domain for elite creators.