STATS HUB • BASKETBALL
The Evolution of the Shot Chart
Visualizing the math that destroyed the mid-range jumper.
The most stark visualization of the analytics revolution is the spatial distribution of shot attempts in the NBA over the last two decades. Below is aggregated data reflecting the league-wide shot profile.
League Average Shot Distribution (Percentage of Total Attempts)
| Shot Location | 2000-01 Season | 2023-24 Season | Expected Value (Points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted Area (At Rim) | 29% | 33% | ~1.30 |
| Paint (Non-Restricted) | 16% | 15% | ~0.85 |
| Mid-Range (14-22 ft) | 38% | 13% | ~0.82 |
| 3-Point Line | 17% | 39% | ~1.10 |
The Takeaway
The math is simple: teams realized that taking a step back to shoot a 3-pointer, even if the shooting percentage was slightly lower, yielded a significantly higher Expected Value (EV) than a long two-pointer. Over 20 years, 25% of all shots migrated from the mid-range to behind the arc.
FAQ
- Where do you source this data?
- All spatial data is aggregated from the official NBA stats API and play-by-play logs, categorized by court zones.